FOREX NEWS

The dollar extended overnight losses in the New York session, shedding nearly 1.3% versus the British pound and sliding by almost 1% against the Australian dollar. Improved risk-appetite was the key driver in the markets at the start of the week, with the sharp rally in the European and US equity bourses. London’s FTSE 100 rallied by 2.65%, the Dow Jones index closed higher by 2% and the S&P 500 advanced by 2.2%. Crude oil surged by 3.24% to trade at its highest level since May 14th, trading to $81.77-per barrel.

The catalyst to the initial gains was strong earnings reports from HSBC and BNP Paribas as well as soft manufacturing data from China. The weaker manufacturing PMI in July for China tempers market expectations for further policy tightening from the government to tap the brakes on an overheating economy. Also propping markets higher was a stronger than expected US July manufacturing ISM report, which beat calls for a decline to 54.0, instead printing at 55.5 from 56.2 from June.

Economic reports will be the key driver in the currency markets this week, with the data culminating in the closely watched labor report on Friday. The Tuesday session will see June personal income, personal spending, the June PCE index, factory orders and pending home sales. The June personal income and personal spending are seen lower, drifting to 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. The pending home sales report in June is estimated to sharply reverse the record plunge from May, which printed at -30.0%, instead increasing by 3.7%

Some of Forex Glossarys

ADX (Average Directional Index) — standard technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend.
Ask (Offer) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.
Aussie — a Forex slang name for the Australian dollar.
Bank Rate — the percentage rate at which central bank of a country lends money to the country's commercial banks.
Bid — price of the demand, the price you sell for.
Broker — the market participating body which serves as the middleman between retail traders and larger commercial institutions.
Cable — a Forex traders slang word GBP/USD currency pair.
Carry Trade — in Forex, holding a position with a positive overnight interest return in hope of gaining profits, without closing the position, just for the central banks interest rates difference.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index) — a cyclical technical indicator that is often used to detect overbought/oversold states of the market.
CFD — a Contract for Difference — special trading instrument that allows financial speculation on stocks, commodities and other instruments without actually buying.
Commission — broker commissions for operation handling.
CPI — consumer price index the statistical measure of inflation based upon changes of prices of a specified set of goods.
EA (Expert Advisor) — an automated script which is used by the trading platform software to manage positions and orders automatically without (or with little) manual control.
ECN Broker — a type of Forex brokerage firm that provide its clients direct access to other Forex market participants. ECN brokers don't discourage scalping, don't trade against the client, don't charge spread (low spread is defined by current market prices) but charge commissions for every order.
ECB (European Central Bank) — the main regulatory body of the European Union financial system.
Fed (Federal Reserve) — the main regulatory body of the United States of America financial system, which division — FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) — regulates, among other things, federal interest rates.
Fibonacci Retracements — the levels with a high probability of trend break or bounce, calculated as the 23.6%, 32.8%, 50% and 61.8% of the trend range.
Flat (Square) — neutral state when all your positions are closed.
Fundamental Analysis — the analysis based only on news, economic indicators and global events.
Gap — a difference between the previous period's close price and the next period's open price. In Forex usually only occurs during weekends — between the Friday's close and the Monday's open price.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — is a measure of the national income and output for the country's economy; it's one of the most important Forex indicators.
GTC (Good Till Canceled) — order to buy or sell of a currency with a fixed price or worse. The order is alive (good) until execution or cancellation.

Forex Books for Beginners

Here you will find the Forex e-books that provide the basic information on Forex trading. You can learn basic concepts of the Forex market, the technical and fundamental analysis. While all these e-books are recommended for every new Forex trader, they won't be very useful to the very experienced traders.
Almost all Forex e-books are in .pdf format. You'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader to open these e-books. Some of the e-books (those that are in parts) are zipped.
If you are the copyright owner of any of these e-books and don't want me to share them, please, contact me and I will gladly remove them.
Candlesticks For Support And Resistance — The basics of trading with candlesticks charts by John H. Forman.
Online Trading Courses — Course #1 lesson #1 by Jake Bernstein.
Commodity Futures Trading for Beginners — by Bruce Babcock.
Hidden Divergence — by Barbara Star, Ph.D.
Peaks and Troughs — by Martin J. Pring.
Reverse Divergences And Momentum — by Martin J. Pring.
Strategy:10 — Low-risk, high-return forex trading by W. R. Booker & Co.
The NYSE Tick Index And Candlesticks — by Tim Ord.
Trend Determination — A quick, accurate and effective methodology by John Hayden.
The Original Turtle Trading Rules — by OrignalTurtles.org.
Introduction to Forex — by 1st Forex Trading Academy. This trading course intends to provide to all of the students analytical tools on the trading system and methodologies. In this respect, the purpose of the course is to provide an overview of the many strategies that are being used in Forex market and to discuss the steps and tools that are needed in order to use these strategies successfully.
The Six Forces of Forex — by Scott Owens. A small e-book covering the basic and the main problems of Forex trading.
Study Book for Successful Foreign Exchange Dealing — by Royal Forex.
Forex. On-Line Manual for Successful Trading — an introduction into every aspect of the Forex trading including detailed descriptions of the technical and fundamental analysis techniques, by unknown author.
18 Trading Champions Share Their Keys to Top Trading Profits — as the name suggests, the book shares the secrets of the 18 prominent traders with the Forex beginners, by FWN.
The Way to Trade Forex — a 1st chapter of the book that will show you not only Forex basics but also some unusual techniques and strategies that can work for the newbie traders, by Jay Lakhani.
The Truth About Fibonacci Trading — the basic facts and information about Fibonacci levels and their application to the Forex trading, by Bill Poulos.
Quick Guide to Forex Trading — a 2008 edition of the Forex guide for the beginners and private traders issued by Easy-Forex.
Chart Patterns and Technical Indicators — an explanation of the most popular chart patterns and some technical indicators, by unknown author.

Profiting From Day Trading Forex Currency

You should learn many things ahead when using the Forex market for the first time. There are many people who become interested in day trading Forex currency since it is one way to invest without having to use a broker to do so. In the day trading of Forex currency, each person has their own account that they can manage and buy and sell currency on the market. It seems like it would be a simple system at the outset, but there are different terms that need to be understood to properly analyze the market and make buying and selling decisions. There are some people who offer systems that have supposedly made them a lot of money on the Forex market, day trading currency, but these are usually scams that do not make money for the consumer.

Euro appears to have weathered the E.U. bank stress test storm; White House estimates budget deficits well above $1 trillion level

Forex traders overcome negative feelings about stress test – The E.U. stress test results have failed to dampen forex traders’ enthusiasm for the euro. At press time (July 26 at 2:20 p.m. in New York), the euro was trading in the neighborhood of 1.30 USD, up approximately 0.72%. Trading sentiment has apparently been influenced by a close look at the latest monthly report on U.S. new housing starts. The Commerce Department reported on July 26 that although annual sales of new homes jumped by 24% in June compared to the previous month, there is no cause for fireworks. The seasonally adjusted June sales figure of 330,000 homes must be seen in relation to the revised figure for May, which was lowered to an annual rate of 267,000. That was the historic low point since recordkeeping began 47 years ago. This did not escape the attention of the forex market.
Continuing U.S. budget deficits seem to be unavoidable – The Obama administration on July 23 released its Mid-Term Review, a revised outlook for the federal budget for both FY 2010 and FY 2011. The newest figures suggest the U.S. economy may, in fact, not escape a double-dip recession, according to some forex traders. The administration is projecting a deficit of $1.47 trillion or 10% of GDP in FY 2010, which ends on Sept. 30. The deficit for FY 2011 is now estimated at $1.42 trillion, which amounts to 9.2% of GDP. Forex market observers believe this admission by the White House is another factor contributing to the July 26 decline of the U.S. dollar versus the euro

Housing Starts

Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month and the level of housing starts is widely followed as an indicator of residential construction activity.
The indicator is followed to assess the commitment of builders to new construction activity. High construction activity is usually associated with increased economic activity and confidence, and is therefore considered a harbinger of higher short-term interest rates that can be supportive of the involved currency at least in the short term.

Retail Sales

Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.
Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.
Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.
Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an indicator of factory sector momentum.

Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defence and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

Payroll Employment

Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government. Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.

Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.
Large increases in payroll employment are seen as signs of strong economic activity that could eventually lead to higher interest rates that are supportive of the currency at least in the short term. If, however, inflationary pressures are seen as building, this may undermine the longer term confidence in the currency.

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods received in primary markets by producers. The monthly PPI reports are widely followed as an indication of commodity inflation.
The PPI is considered important because it accounts for price changes throughout the manufacturing sector.
The PPI is often followed but excludes the food and energy components as these items are normally much more volatile than the rest of the PPI and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Studying the PPI allows consideration of inflationary pressures that may be accumulating or receding, but have not yet filtered through to the finished goods prices.
A rising PPI is normally expected to lead to higher consumer price inflation and thereby to potentially higher short-term interest rates. Higher rates will often have a short term positive impact on a currency, although significant inflationary pressure will often lead to an undermining of the confidence in the currency involved.

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The monthly reported changes in CPI are widely followed as an inflation indicator.
The CPI is a primary inflation indicator because consumer spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of economic activity. Often, the CPI is followed but excludes the price of food and energy as these items are generally much more volatile than the rest of the CPI and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Rising consumer price inflation is normally associated with the expectation of higher short term interest rates and may therefore be supportive for a currency in the short term. Nevertheless, a longer term inflation problem will eventually undermine confidence in the currency and weakness will follow.

Gross Domestic Product

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government.
As GDP reports are often subject to substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility and revisions, it is preferable to follow the indicator on a year-to-year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses in the economy.
A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency.

Trade Balance

The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.
The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.
It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.

Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.

Stop-loss discipline

As you can see from the description above, there are significant opportunities and risks in foreign exchange markets. Aggressive traders might experience profit/loss swings of 20-30% daily. This calls for strict stop-loss policies in positions that are moving against you.
Fortunately, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend. This means that there will nearly always be an opportunity to react to moves in the main currency markets and a low risk of getting caught without the opportunity of getting out. Of course, the market can move very fast and a stop-loss order is by no means a guarantee of getting out at the desired level.
But the main risk is really an event over the weekend, where all markets are closed. This happens from time to time as many important political events, such as G7 meetings, are normally scheduled for weekends.
For speculative trading, we always recommend the placement of protective stop-lossorders. With Saxo Bank Internet Trading you can easily place and change such orders while watching market development graphically on your computer screen.

Interest Rate Differentials

Different currencies pay different interest rates. This is one of the main driving forces behind foreign exchange trends. It is inherently attractive to be a buyer of a currency that pays a high interest rate while being short a currency that has a low interest rate.
Although such interest rate differentials may not appear very large, they are of great significance in a highly leveraged position. For example, the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been approximately 5% for several years. In a position that can be supported by a 5% margin deposit, this results in a 100% profit on capital per annum when you buy the US dollar. Of course, an even more important factor normally is the relative value of the currencies, which changed 15% from low to high during 2005 – disregarding the interest rate differential. From a pure interest rate differential viewpoint, you have an advantage of 100% per annum in your favour by being long US dollar and an initial disadvantage of the same size by being short.
Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!
Such a situation clearly benefits the high interest rate currency and as result, the US dollar was in a strong bull market all through 2005. But it is by no means a certainty that the currency with the higher interest rate will be strongest. If the reason for the high interest rate is runaway inflation, this may undermine confidence in the currency even more than the benefits perceived from the high interest rate.

Spot and forward trading

When you trade foreign exchange you are normally quoted a spot price. This means that if you take no further steps, your trade will be settled after two business days. This ensures that your trades are undertaken subject to supervision by regulatory authorities for your own protection and security. If you are a commercial customer, you may need to convert the currencies for international payments. If you are an investor, you will normally want to swap your trade forward to a later date. This can be undertaken on a daily basis or for a longer period at a time. Often investors will swap their trades forward anywhere from a week or two up to several months depending on the time frame of the investment.
Although a forward trade is for a future date, the position can be closed out at any time - the closing part of the position is then swapped forward to the same future value date.

Dealing Spread, but No Commissions

When trading foreign exchange, you are quoted a dealing spread offering you a buying and a selling level for your trade. Once you accept the offered price and receive confirmation from our dealers, the trade is done. There is no need to call an exchange floor. There are no other time-consuming delays. This is possible due to live streaming prices, which are also a great advantage in times of fast-moving markets: You can see where the market is trading and you know whether your orders are filled or not.
The dealing spread is typically 3-5 points in normal market conditions. This means that you can sell US dollars against the euro at 1.7780 and buy at 1.7785. There are no further costs, commissions or exchange fees.
This ensures that you can get in and out of your trades at very low slippage and many traders are therefore active intra-day traders, given that a typical day in USDEUR presents price swings of 150-200 points.

Base Currency and Variable Currency

When you trade, you will always trade a combination of two currencies. For example, you will buy US dollars and sell euro. Or buy euro and sell Japanese yen, or any other combination of dozens of widely traded currencies. But there is always a long (bought) and a short (sold) side to a trade, which means that you are speculating on the prospect of one of the currencies strengthening in relation to the other.
The trade currency is normally, but not always, the currency with the highest value. When trading US dollars against Singapore dollars, the normal way to trade is buying or selling a fixed amount of US dollars, i.e. USD 1,000,000. When closing the position, the opposite trade is done, again USD 1,000,000. The profit or loss will be apparent in the change of the amount of SGD credited and debited for the two transactions. In other words, your profit or loss will be denominated in SGD, which is known as the price currency. As part of our service, Saxo Bank will automatically exchange your profits and losses into your base currency if you require this.

Margin Trading

Foreign exchange is normally traded on margin. A relatively small deposit can control much larger positions in the market. For trading the main currencies, Saxo Bank requires a 1% margin deposit. This means that in order to trade one million dollars, you need to place just USD 10,000 by way of security.
In other words, you will have obtained a gearing of up to 100 times. This means that a change of, say 2%, in the underlying value of your trade will result in a 200% profit or loss on your deposit. See below for specific examples. As you can see, this calls for a very disciplined approach to trading as both profit opportunities and potential risks are very large indeed. Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins

Forex Trading Basics

There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.
Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.
In the following article, we would like to introduce you to some of the basic concepts of foreign exchange trading. If you would like any further information, we suggest that you sign up for a FREE Membership on this website, where you will be able to exchange views with other Forex traders and get answers to any questions you might have.